James, L.K., S. M. Swinton, K.D. Thelen
Presented at the GLBRC Sustainability Retreat (2010-02-10 to 2010-02-12 )
The expected profitability of six cellulosic feedstock crops is compared to two corn-based systems under southern Great Lakes region conditions over a projected ten-year period. At 2006-09 costs and yields from literature, none would be more profitable than the corn-based systems. Comparative breakeven price analysis identifies the cellulosic feedstock price that would make crops equally profitable with continuous corn. Breakeven prices of cellulose are $110 to $130 Mg-1 for poplar, switchgrass and mixed grasses. For miscanthus, breakeven cellulose prices are $200 Mg-1 at current costs, but only $45 Mg-1 if rhizome costs fall to near European levels, well within the range of temporary U.S. farm bill cost share levels for biomass harvest, transportation and storage. Without targeted subsidies, native prairie and fallow old field systems would not be competitive with corn or the other four cellulosic crops reviewed at current yields and foreseeable prices. Comparative breakeven yields at a cellulose price of $60 Mg-1 would require yield gains above benchmark literature values of 50% for switchgrass, 60% for poplar and mixed grasses, 140% for fallow old fields, 180% for native prairie and 190% for miscanthus at current rhizome costs, but no added yield for miscanthus with rhizomes at plausible reduced cost.
Back to meeting | Show |